Thursday, October 25, 2012

The Effects Of Current News In The Financial Industry



All types of finance jobs relate to current events. Whether you are a mortgage broker issuing loans at the current interest rate or a stock dealer working on Wall Street buying and selling shares, your job revolves around the current market. However, perhaps you are just like me trying to decide what companies to invest in. Knowing that all financial jobs respond to current events, you should understand the importance of what state the current economy is in. How the overall economy is doing will cause all financial jobs to strategize their planning accordingly. Since financing refers to managing money for the future, current events and how they will forecast the future will play a large role. For example if the economy is prospering, society as a whole is making more money. When society is making more money, people tend to have extra cash to spend. Therefore, when people have more money to spend they will buy more goods, giving companies more business. In this particular state of an economy, companies are given more opportunities to invest their extra cash flow into new projects. If these projects are viewed by the public positively, the value of the company rises reflecting in its stock price. This is an important idea to realize when choosing companies the right companies to invest in.

Another idea to realize about investing your money in the stock market is how expected market news differs from actual market news. The stock market has hundreds of analysts predicting the economic state of participating companies in the market. Because the majority of investors believe or have the same predictions as professional analysts the stock prices are adjusted to these predictions. Therefore, when these expectations are wrong the market can fluctuate rapidly, increasing or decreasing stock prices based on the difference between what actually happened and what was predicted.

Let’s look at one of the companies I am currently a shareholder of, Facebook. On Tuesday night Facebook announced its 2012 Quarter 3 earnings which were higher than analysts expected.  Sure enough Wednesday morning when the stock market opened, Facebook's stock increased to nearly 20%. According to Before It News, "The social networking company said that it now has 1.01 billion users on its network and had earned $1.26 billion in revenue this past quarter, about a 32% increase over Q2 and almost 100% increase over the same time last year." This announcement was great for shareholders of the company. I have owned the stock for about 3 months and this was the greatest increase the stock has had. Check out the graph above, showing Facebook's stock price for the last three months. Notice its closing price on Tuesday before Facebook's announcement. Then Wednesday morning after the news its stock price sky rocketed. Therefore, as you can see the stock market is affected by current events that differ from the markets predictions. You see according to the Outline of the U.S. Economy by Conte and Carr, "In general, economists say, they (stock prices) reflect the long-term earnings potential of companies." After this announcement the stock price went up because analysts had undervalued the success of the company. Facebook has done better than analysts expected, showing their future is brighter having more cash flow.

I've mentioned that all financial professions are impacted by current events. However, since I've been currently researching stock brokers I want to emphasize their relation. Because one of the main skills a stock broker must have is a strong clientele relationship, he must be able to understand the effects of current events. For example, a good stock broker having done the research should have been able to realize that Facebook was going to announce their 2012 Quarter 3 earnings Tuesday night. Therefore, this broker should have predicted the outcome prior to the announcement to help his clients decide whether to invest in Facebook or not. If the broker had realized Facebook was going to inform everyone like they did, he should have informed investors to buy shares on Tuesday. This would have gained investors 20% on their investment in one day! However, it’s easy to speculate after the fact about what your broker advised. All they can do is give an educated guess as to what is going to happen. Check out this video below from the movie the 25th Hour. This entertaining clip demonstrates how brokers predict the market. However, keep in mind this broker is looking after mutual funds where he is in charge of picking the investments for his clients. This is not a job all brokers have.

4 comments:

  1. Everyone knows moneys and everybody know how to buy things. Yet, I am still left a little confused about this whole idea of the stock market. You basically talk about how if economy is doing well then people will have more money to spend. I understand this whole idea and see how that works for say your local Starbucks but stocks I am not sure. You mention how Facebook had like a 20% increase since the last year and has more users than ever. I guess if I understood how Facebook or these companies get their revenue or what having so many users meant then I would get more from this article.

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    1. Anejelia the stock market is composed of thousands of companies which people can invest in. For example you mentioned Starbucks, which is a company publically traded in the stock market. Say you decide you want to invest in Starbucks by purchasing shares of its Stock. First you should decide how much money you want to invest, then you need to see how much each share is selling for in the market (Starbucks stock price). Right now Starbucks is selling for $47.87 per share. Perhaps you decide you want to invest $1000 in the company, so you would buy 20 shares (1000/47.87).
      Now what I was trying to show in my post was how the stock price is affected by current events. Why is Starbucks stock price currently selling at $47.87 per share? You see this price per share increases and decreases frequently. You see the stock price is determined by how the company is predicted to do in the future by stock analysts. Therefore, if news breaks out that Starbucks pumpkin latte is getting people sick then the stock price will drop below $47.87 because the company's future is being questioned.

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  2. It is interesting to see your view on stock markets. At my job we are given the option to put some of our money into stocks; However, since I am unfamiliar with how stocks work I refused to do it. My aunt told me that with stocks it is kind of like a gamble because if you win, you can win big, but if you loose then you would loose all the money you put in. Do you think that investing money in stocks is similar to gambling? Right now that I am young I would probably do it and start off small, so in case the stock I invest in is bad I won't loose a lot of money. Do you have any advice for people that are interested in joining the stock market?

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  3. I think Finance is one of the studies that requires a really thorough calculation because the stock market is changing everyday. Like the data that you showed us, it seems that Facebook was below the market value for sometimes, yet suddenly the price rockets like crazy. This event is not for everyone to see, so that I feel that Finance is a very promising discipline to learn. In my opinion, Finance graduates is like a clairvoyance that can see an event in the future that most of the people cannot see. So, if you are good and have the passion on the finance major, I do not understand how you cannot earn a lot of money in the future.

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